The U.S. burned through 25% of its upper-tier interceptor stockpile in 12 days against Iran.
The Stimson Center estimates we'd exhaust Patriot and THAAD inventories within 24 hours of an Indo-Pacific conflict. CSIS now reports the full Iran campaign depleted over 50% of THAAD stocks and nearly half our Patriot inventory. Replenishment timeline: 3-8 years at current production rates.
China doesn't need to outperform our weapon systems. They need to outlast them. Their cost asymmetry is 10-100x with cheap mass against exquisite legacy inventory. These economics break before the first carrier group can steam to theater.
The $1B question: who can best deliver capability amidst all the chaos?
Low cost intercepts. Actionable presentation. Open and interoperable. Design built for scale that doesn't take 8 years to reach full production.
The demand signal is real. The stockpile data is proof. But it's a symptom of a much larger problem that is far from fixed.